Ontario Housing Market Trends
It’s important to note that housing market trends in Toronto, Mississauga, Oakville, Burlington, Hamilton real estate will be reflecting in trends throughout the province of Ontario. According to the survey conducted by Century 21 Canada saw the average sale prices dropped by four per cent from $822,572 in 2017 to $789,181 in 2018 with unit sales down by 16%. While the lack of affordability in the single-detached segment is making it difficult for home buyers to enter the housing market, the resale condo market has risen. Condo resale now represents about 37% of total residential sales. Housing market trends are predicting an average residential sale price to increase by two per cent in 2021 & 2022.
Housing Market Trends Summary
Overall, the actual and perceived impacts of the mortgage stress test and rising interest rates on housing affordability is causing a decrease in the percentage of Canadians entering the housing market.
Economists at Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the Mortgage Bankers Association, and the National Association of Realtors forecast median prices will rise between 3 to 8% in 2021, a significant drop from 2020 but nothing like the crash in prices seen in the last housing crash. (May 10, 2021)
Burlington
Remarkable turn of events. During the month of April 2020, sales were down 67% as compared to April 2019, with only 74 sales in 2020 versus 225 in April of 2019. Fast forward to April 2021 and sales are up 225% with 241 sales in April 2021 as compared to those 74 in 2020. Likely the more telling comparable is when you take April 2019 (225 sales)and compare it to April 2021 (274 sales) which is still a 20% increase but a comparable that provides a little more clarity in terms of where the market is today.
The bigger story of course is sale prices. While prices remained very stable last year as compared to the year before, notwithstanding the severe reduction in the number of sales, this April defied all logic. Sale prices in Burlington increased by 33.8% as compared to April 2020. Year to date sale prices have increased by 26.9% as compared to the same period last year.
Properties sold for 106.80% of the asking price (down from 109% in March 2021) and in 9 days on average during the month of April. Inventory levels remain extremely low, down 45% as compared to levels at the end of April 2020. At the end of April there were exactly 20 active listings that had been on the market for over 30 days and of those, only 1 over 90 days.
As to notable sales, on the one hand, we saw a 3780 sq. ft. house in upper Tyandaga, somewhat dated with an inground pool, list for $1,990,000 and sell 20 days later for 89% of the asking price. On the other end of the spectrum and a far more common outcome, we saw an 1123 sq.ft. unremarkable 3 level sidesplit with a carport list on Camelot in the Shoreacres neighbourhood for $978,000, sit on the market for 26 days and then sell for $1.3million. If you’re scratching your head on that one, you’re not alone. Another quite astonishing sale occurred in the Longmoor neighborhood. A 4 level sidesplit fixer-upper opportunity that was likely built in the late 1960s and appeared to have the same wallpaper and carpet from that time, on a corner lot with a pool was listed at $799,900 (a price that would have been very difficult to achieve 2 years ago) and sold for $1,020,000.
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Oakville
Astonishingly, sales in the month of April were up by 326.7% as compared to April of 2020. Sales in April 2021 were at 367 and at 86 in April 2020. Again, when compared to April 2019 when we saw 197 sales, the increase isn’t quite as breathtaking, but still up an incredible 86%, nonetheless.
Sale prices were off the charts as well. We saw an increase of 32.8% in sale prices in April, as compared to April 2020. Year to date, sale prices have increased by 27.8% as compared to the same period in 2020.
Properties sold for 106.06% of the asking price and in 10 days on average during the month of April. Inventory levels are difficult to gauge as more and more properties are being listed on the Toronto Real Estate Board and not on the Oakville/Milton Board. According to the Toronto Board there were 287 Active listings at the end of April whereas according to the Oakville/Milton Board there were 154. Either way, the numbers are down considerably from last year when on the Oakville/Milton Board at the end of April there were 327 active listings.
Many sales defied logic but there were a few standouts. A teardown on Rebecca listed at $1,249,000 and sold for $1,575,000. A two storey, nicely updated 1500 sq. ft. home with a single car garage in Glen Abbey was listed at $948,888 and sold in 2 days for $1,250,000. A newer 2500 sq. ft. semi-detached in the Trafalgar/Dundas neighborhood with an unfinished basement was listed for $999,999 (which was a reasonable price) and sold in 3 days for $1,370,000. Likely the most spectacular result occurred in Bronte on a quiet court. The house was nicely updated but by no means spectacular, the lot was lovely and included a pool – pie-shaped and parklike. None of this however explained how it could be listed at $1,399,000 (which was admittedly on the low side) and sell for $1,901,000.
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Hamilton & Stoney Creek
Sales were up 218.5% in April as compared to April 2020 but again, when compared to April 2019, a more normal year, sales were up 41% (379 sales in 2019 versus 535 sales in 2021). Year to date, sales are up 62.9% as compared to the same period last year.
Sale prices saw their largest increase in one month so far this year. During the month of April, sale prices were up 34.2% as compared to April 2020. Year to date, sale prices rose by 30.3% as compared to the same period in 2020.
Properties sold for 111.89% of the listed price and in 9 days, on average during the month of April. Inventory levels have started to creep up closer and closer to 2020 levels. At the end of April, inventory in Hamilton was just 4.45% less than what we saw at the end of April 2020 but still about 20% less than the 5 year average at this time of the year.
Of course, there were many spectacular sales in Hamilton during the month of April but a few stand out more than others. A 1990 sq. ft. two-storey, dated yet beautifully maintained home in the Southam neighbourhood was listed at $899,000 (a neighbourhood that otherwise attracts an average price of $650,000) and sold for $1,203,000. A 25×89 property with a 740 sq. ft. house that could be best described as needing to be condemned was listed for $300,000 in the Homeside neighbourhood of Hamilton East. While the sale price of $452,000 may not seem spectacular, when you take into account that the average price in this community, for a 1000 sq. ft. home was $517,000, this sale price had to be more related to massive competition rather than reasonable comparison analysis. A 22×90 foot property in the Gibson neighbourhood with a 1339 sq. ft. two-storey fixer-upper opportunity with street parking only was listed at $349,900 and as mentioned in the remarks on the listing, “priced to sell” did just that – it sold for $561,000 or 60.3% over the asking price.
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Greater Hamilton
The communities that make up the Greater Hamilton area seem to best reflect the impact the pandemic has had on real estate in the Golden Horseshoe. It is these communities that reflect best the trends that have emerged. Specifically, the migration from urban communities to suburban and rural communities that were at one time, too far from the major employment hubs. During the month of April, for example, Glanbrook which is the furthest suburban community from Toronto saw a 59.5% increase in sale prices as compared to April 2020, which was the highest increase in our trading area. Sales in Glanbrook were up 326% as compared to April 2020. These numbers can only be described as explosive.
Not far behind Glanbrook were Dundas with a 58% increase in sale prices, the rural communities of Flamborough with a 57% increase in sale prices, followed by Stoney Creek below the mountain at 49% increase, Waterdown at 42% increase and Stoney Creek Mountain and Ancaster hovering around a 38% increase as compared to April of 2020.
Year to date, these communities have seen an average increase of 34.1% in sale prices and 60% increase in sales on average as compared to the same period in 2020. During the month of April, properties sold for 109.18% of the listed price and in 8 days, on average.
Remarkable sales abounded in April. Here are a few to ponder: A 19-acre property in the Sulphur Springs area with a house that was in such poor condition, buyers were not permitted to enter it, was listed at $998,000 and sold for $1.8million – 80.4% over the listed price. Dundas saw its share of exceptional sales, not the least of which was on Pleasant Ave in the Pleasant Valley neighbourhood. A 1392 sq.ft. nicely updated home with a pool on a 50×242 lot was listed at $749,000 which was superficially low, to be sure. It sold for $1,153,000. An 1892 sq. ft. detached home with a single car garage in the Glanbrook neighbourhood was listed at $699,777 and sold for $912,000. A 1551 sq. ft. nicely updated bungalow in the Parkview Heights neighbourhood in Ancaster was listed for $950,000, which seemed reasonable, sold for $1,239,000. A very dated 1223 sq.ft. bungalow on a 96×200 lot was listed in the Winona neighbourhood at $799,000, sold in 2 days for $1million. Finally, a 1436 sq. ft. bungalow in one of the more mature Waterdown neighbourhoods was listed for $949,900. This property had sold just two years ago for $820,000 and it appeared to have had no further investment since then. It sold in 5 days for $1,130,000 – a 37% increase in two years.
Click Here to View Greater Hamilton Stats
What Does This Mean?
All markets remained severely unbalanced, in favour of the seller throughout the month of April. We did however, start to notice a slight shift as the month of April came to a close. Whether it’s buyer fatigue, slightly more inventory or just less demand, we do believe that this red hot market is going to cool, if only slightly. We don’t expect to see prices retract but it is our expectation that they will not continue to increase at anything like the rate we have recently witnessed.
There are a lot of angry, frustrated buyers out there as frequently reported in the press. We see these reports and hear of some buyers’ negative experiences and it both saddens and frustrates us. It has been our overall experience that real estate practitioners in our trading area are honest, ethical and follow the rules. There are no doubt some bad apples as there are in any profession but one thing we know for sure, if you list or buy with the Findlay Real Estate Team, you will be treated with respect, we will follow the rules, we will act ethically, we will respect our fellow real estate practitioners and we will do all of this while keeping the best interests of our clients at the forefront of our actions.
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